 November 2022 CKM Newsletter LOCAL 1) Media articles written by CKM member Tom Powell since the last newsletter. 10/10/2022 - Don't export our electricity - we need it here. 15/10/2022 - To grow or to degrow? That is the question 29/10/2022 - Every one of us will be personally touched by climate change 12/11/2022 - Did the Government get agricultural emissions levy plan right? 2) Three Waters discussion. An extra meeting was organised in August to provide the opportunity for CKM active members to discuss the issues surrounding the 3 Waters debate. As a result a letter of support was put together and sent to the Mayor, Councillors, MDC CEO, Minister David Parker, Minister Nanaia Mahuta and MP Stuart Smith. The summary of the letter stated - "This is a critical time for rebuilding the partnership between central and local government. While central government provides standards and support, we believe it needs to avoid dictating how local and regional communities and institutions apply their different solutions to their own care of New Zealand waters. Cooperation, forbearance and flexibility will be key. In particular, from a local viewpoint, we support the position of the Marlborough District Council as laid out in its submission dated the 20 July, 2022 to the Finance and Expenditure Committee on Water Services Entities Bill. We expect clarity and transparency in public of all governmental decision-making. Finally, we comment that nobody can own water any more than we own the air we breathe; rather, we owe water, air and the land we stand on due care and responsibility. Otherwise, climate, land, sea and the planet altogether will make their own decisions for us and despite us, as we have all been experiencing at home and abroad." The full text of the letter can be read here if you're interested. 3) CKM Submission on Agricultural Emissions Pricing. A submission was written by Tom Powell and Don Quick on this complex subject. Here is the preamble to give you a feel for our thinking on this matter. “In addition to submitting within the framework of the “15 set questions” of the Ministry for the Environment (MfE), we have extracted our answer to question 15 (other priority issues), embedding it within this explanatory supporting preamble statement. Central to CKM’s common concern for our environments, local, national and global, is the belief that all of humanity that relies on industrial technology must seek a new way of thinking about and acting in our relationship with our planet. Although most people acknowledge that we can no longer continue to regard our environment as separate from us, as simply a source of goods from which we can extract what we want without return, the fact is that we continue not only to abuse the environment on which our wellbeing relies but to poison it with our waste. CKM takes the warnings of the environmental sciences with regard to global warming and biodiversity loss as both serious and critically urgent. CKM sees no evidence of new ways of thinking in the document on “pricing agricultural emissions” on which we are submitting. Therefore, we are not willing to relegate our priorities to the last box of what appears to us to be a box-ticking exercise. We have responded to the “set questions”, as requested, worrying that if we don’t answer the questions, our thoughts, and our priorities, will simply be relegated to the box ticked “Other”. “ Check out the full submission on our website if you’re interested. 4) Climate Action Week, February, 2023. Catherine van der Meulen joined us at our October meeting to talk about her plans to organise a Climate Action Week from Monday 13th - Friday 17th February next year. She informed us that the organising group are hosting a "Garden Marlborough" style event where a number of organisations in our community become hosts to open their doors/ gates/ cellars etc to our local business community to come and learn in their environment about the diverse work that they are doing to create a Climate Positive Business and Community. They also plan to have short talks/presentations on a range of topics at the different hosting businesses. We are having ongoing discussions with Catherine about how CKM members may be able to contribute. The Marlborough Express has committed to publishing information about the event in the New Year. 5) Earth Day, 2023. Envirohub Marlborough are organising another annual Earth Day event next year. It is scheduled to for Sunday 30 April, 2023. More information will be available in the New Year. 6) Progress with Proposed Marlborough Environment Plan. (PMEP) An update was presented to the Environment and Planning Committee of the Council on November 24th on progress with the appeals to the PMEP. Since the last report to the Planning, Finance and Community Committee on 8 September 2022, the Environment Court has issued nine consent orders. These consent orders are for the Natural Hazards, Heritage, Energy, Landscape, Transportation, Climate Change, Nuisance and Utilities topics. The completion of this process for the Climate Change chapter is of interest to CKM. There were some minor appeals in the Climate Change chapter, most of which were from the aquaculture industry wanting more explicit acknowledgement of ocean acidification issues within the chapter. For example one Anticipated Environmental Result (AER) stated "The community’s understanding of the effects of climate change and sea level rise improves over time." The wording has been changed to "The community’s understanding of the effects of climate change, sea level rise, and ocean acidification improves over time. The associated "Monitoring Effectiveness" statement for that AER stated "The results of research into the local effects of climate change and sea level rise are reported to the Council. Environmental data, including climate and flooding, is collected and reported to the Council to establish long term trends." The wording has been changed to "The results of research into the local effects of climate change and sea level rise, and ocean acidification are reported to the Council. Environmental data, including climate, flooding and ocean pH, is collected and reported to the Council to establish long term trends." The full, final Climate Change chapter, Chapter 19, can be downloaded on the Council website here along with other chapters for anyone interested. 7) Update on Wairau Aquifer discussions with Council staff. Budyong, Don and Dave recently met with Council staff members, Pere Hawes and Hans Versteegh for a discussion about the Wairau Aquifer and the issues arising from the identified declining recharge. This is part of our ongoing communications with Council staff about this matter and follows on from our report on this topic in the August newsletter related to the Gravel Bed Rivers research and water allocation from the aquifer. We have documented our discussions in a report to the CKM meeting. This report plus further correspondence on this matter can be found on our website if you’re interested in this topic. NATIONAL 8) Ocean acidity rising in New Zealand coastal waters. The Stats NZ report, based on NIWA data, showed acidity has increased 8.6 percent between 1998 and 2020. It's caused by the ocean absorbing carbon dioxide from the air, which can dissolve the shells of pāua, mussels and other kaimoana. NIWA principal marine biogeochemist Dr Cliff Law said the increase is "alarming", but the trend has been observed for some time. Ocean acidity has increased by 30 percent over the last 250 years, and will increase by up to 150 percent by the end of the century, Law said. Check out the full article. 9) Green CO2 for Horticulture - A Kiwi innovation. Hot Lime Labs was founded in 2017 using technology originally developed at Callaghan Innovation. Dr Vlatko Materic, founder and CEO of Hot Lime Labs, had been researching and working on CO2 capture systems for large scale thermal power plants for over a decade at the former government research institute, Industrial Research Limited – now Callaghan Innovation. It was during this time he developed the Hot Lime capture technology. The technology showed great promise for this application, however, the economic drivers did not exist for power plant operators to justify the additional costs of installing and operating CO2 capture system using the technology. Fast forward 10 years and Vlatko discovered the vast unmet demand for clean CO2 in the greenhouse industry and quickly found that both technology and commercial drivers were well aligned. The Hot Lime Labs CO2 capture system converts wood waste biomass into clean CO2 for commercial greenhouses, increasing crop productivity and growth. The system currently converts a range of wood waste into CO2 through our novel process. In future, the system will broaden to be able to convert other waste biomass such as crop waste, waste oils and anaerobic digester gases. We can also potentially help you out if you have large quantities of problematic biomass to deal with. Check out the website for more info. 10) Zero Jet – Another Kiwi innovation. The world’s lightest electric jet tender. The innovative ZeroJet system is safe, easy to use, compact and quiet but most importantly, environmentally friendly, and emission-free. ZeroJet is the first jet propulsion system to be designed specifically for an electric motor, delivering the perfect balance of performance and runtime. Alongside the material and technical development journey of ZeroJet, some powerful comparisons have been made to the automotive industry, to gauge the impact of traditional petrol-powered outboard motors on the marine environment. In short, taking one 20hp four-stroke outboard off the water is the equivalent of taking 150 cars off the road - and that’s something we’re striving to have a hand in. Our plans include partnering with more boat builders, expanding internationally, and developing systems for larger 5m and 6m tenders, all working towards our ultimate audacious goal of eliminating the need for combustion engines on small watercraft. Check out their website. 11) NZ expresses active interest in joining German ‘climate club’. This is an interesting development and might be a sign of how trading between nations may change in the years ahead. The issue I see is that I'm don’t think NZ can be categorised as "steaming ahead" or in the "vanguard" yet! The issue of emissions from animal farming in particular is still unresolved, and we seem to be over reliant on planting trees and buying overseas credits to meet our Paris obligations. Hardly the sort of actions I would describe as revolutionary. I guess we have to live in hope that the legal framework that is now in place in NZ will bring about the necessary changes in behaviour etc that we need to actually reduce emissions. New Zealand has expressed interest in joining a German climate initiative to collaborate on decarbonising industry and harmonise carbon prices across borders, according to Climate Change Minister James Shaw. The climate club would aim to rectify the unfair situation by creating a trading bloc of ambitious countries who could freely exchange goods without concerns about emissions leakage. Meanwhile, non-members would face carbon tariffs when trying to trade in emissions-intensive goods with any members of the bloc. As James says "After a while, the countries that are steaming ahead are going to look sideways at the countries that are dragging the chain and say, why are we doing all the heavy-lifting here?" he said. "I think that you will start to see trade advantage accrue to those countries that are in the vanguard." Check out the full article. 12) Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment letter to PM. I was interested to read that the office of the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, headed by Simon Upton sent a letter to the government after the Prime Minister made a statement to Parliament on Feb 8th this year where she said – “NZ is uniquely placed to become a world leader in hydrogen production using renewable energy, creating new export opportunities, high wage jobs and regional industries.” Green hydrogen production may well be part of the mix in the future for powering heavy transport vehicles, ships etc but the Commissioner raises some very pertinent questions as to whether we should be considering large scale green hydrogen production here in NZ. In the letter the PCE made the following points – There was a presumption that green hydrogen was a good idea without first doing an energy system analysis.
If you are interested for more info check out the full letter. 13) The Dry Year Myth and a Critique on Lake Onslow concept. EnergyWatch publishes issues once or twice a year with a range of very interesting and well researched articles. The July issue from this year has an analysis of the Lake Onslow proposal and whether it is the best solution for meeting renewable electricity production targets in dry years. It suggests that the multi-million dollar “New Zealand Battery” study is using a sledgehammer to crack a nut. They say that study appears founded on the premise that the Lake Onslow scheme is the only way to future-proof electricity supply in NZ, a premise they wish to challenge. Summary
The EnergyWatch report is comprehensive and unequivocal in it’s opposition to the Lake Onslow project. If you are interested in the details you can download the full report. Forest and Bird also published an article on this subject in September. In the article they conclude -
Check out the full article. 14) Electricity Privatisation Delivers “Excess Dividends” At Cost Of People And Planet. It’s great to see a growing awareness in NZ of the dysfunctional nature of our electricity sector. This new report “Generating Scarcity; How the gentailers hike electricity prices and halt decarbonisation” co-authored by FIRST Union, the NZCTU and 350 AotearoaNZ argues that since the partial-privatisation of our electricity companies, the four big gentailers have delivered billions in excess dividends to shareholders and thereby are starving the market of investments in renewables. “We’re trapped in a toxic cycle whereby gentailers have a perverse incentive to keep fossil fuels in the grid which hikes power prices, enables them to make record profits, and distribute excess dividends which again prevents new generation from being built. We will not see an end to this unless the Government sets the right levers and uses its power as a majority shareholder in the electricity generation market.”, said Feldmeier. The Executive Director of the climate justice organisation said, “There is large interest among communities in Aotearoa to contribute in meaningful ways to climate change mitigation. 350 Aotearoa calls for expanding public participation in the renewable energy transition and the broader functioning of the energy sector.” Check out the full article. 15) Cellular Agriculture information in the NZ context. The Office of the Prime Minister’s Chief Science Advisor has a section on their website with information about Cellular Agriculture and a “Cellular Agriculture Resource Portal”. It is put together by Dr Olivia Ogilvie who is the granddaughter of dear friends of ours from when we lived on the Kapiti Coast in the 2000’s. If you are interested in this topic you can check out the website. INTERNATIONAL 16) Climate crisis: past eight years were the eight hottest ever, says UN. I’m making a real effort in this newsletter to limit the number of items highlighting how serious the Climate Crisis has become. We all know the situation is worsening each year so I’ve only chosen two that report on recent concerning research. Both of them were released before the COP 27 talks in Egypt and reading them will serve to accentuate the issues facing life on Planet Earth, now that we know how little was achieved at the talks. It really does seem that the COP conferences are too cumbersome and too easily influenced by fossil fuel lobbyists with bottomless pockets for us to have any hope that the big decisions necessary for ensuring real emissions reductions, can be made in a timely manner. Here is a quote from the first article - Prof Mike Meredith, at the British Antarctic Survey, said: “The messages in this report could barely be bleaker – all over our planet, records are being shattered as different parts of the climate system begin to break down. The loss of ice is especially alarming as the impacts on people, societies and economies are huge. If this doesn’t focus the minds of the global leaders at COP27, I don’t know what will.” Check out the full article. 17) NASA Studies Find Previously Unknown Loss of Antarctic Ice. New research on Antarctica, including the first map of iceberg calving, doubles the previous estimates of loss from ice shelves and details how the continent is changing. The greatest uncertainty in forecasting global sea level rise is how Antarctica’s ice loss will accelerate as the climate warms. Two studies published Aug. 10 and led by researchers at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California reveal unexpected new data about how the Antarctic Ice Sheet has been losing mass in recent decades. One study, published in the journal Nature, maps how iceberg calving – the breaking off of ice from a glacier front – has changed the Antarctic coastline over the last 25 years. The researchers found that the edge of the ice sheet has been shedding icebergs faster than the ice can be replaced. This surprise finding doubles previous estimates of ice loss from Antarctic’s floating ice shelves since 1997, from 6 trillion to 12 trillion metric tons. Ice loss from calving has weakened the ice shelves and allowed Antarctic glaciers to flow more rapidly to the ocean, accelerating the rate of global sea level rise. The other study, published in Earth System Science Data, shows in unprecedented detail how the thinning of Antarctic ice as ocean water melts it has spread from the continent’s outward edges into its interior, almost doubling in the western parts of the ice sheet over the past decade. Combined, the complementary reports give the most complete view yet of how the frozen continent is changing. Check out the full article. 18) Vanuatu, one of the most climate-vulnerable countries, launches ambitious climate plan. The Pacific country of Vanuatu has launched one of the world’s most ambitious climate policies, committing to 100% renewable energy in electricity generation by 2030 and ambitious targets on loss and damage. The announcement signals yet another instance of the small island state making its mark in international climate efforts. At last year’s UN climate summit in Glasgow, all countries were urged to “revisit and strengthen” their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) on climate action by the end of 2022. Vanuatu is one of just 12 countries to have done so, and its ambitious targets have been praised by regional experts. Check out the full article. 19) Vanuatu formally launches push for Fossil Fuel Non-proliferation Treaty Vanuatu is calling on other nations to join it in establishing a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty. This has been proposed as an international mechanism to address the source of 86 percent of the CO2 emissions that cause climate change. The President of Vanuatu Nikenike Vurobaravu, made the historic call in September at the United Nations General Assembly. Check out the full article. If you haven’t already done so you may wish to endorse the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty. On the website they say -
20) Energy charter treaty makes climate action nearly illegal in 52 countries. This recent development in Europe is very interesting. It is unbelievable to me that there is an international agreement that gives fossil fuel companies the right to sue governments for profits lost as a result of policy changes. Why did anyone ever sign such an agreement. Anyway it’s good to see momentum growing within Europe to withdraw from the Treaty. Here is an extract from one of the articles about this issue. The three coalition parties forming the German government on Friday agreed the country should leave the Energy Charter Treaty, making it the biggest economy to announce it's quitting the embattled deal. "We are consistently aligning our trade policy with climate protection and are withdrawing accordingly from the Energy Charter Treaty," Franziska Brantner, a parliamentary state secretary in the economy and climate ministry, said in a press release. The pact, designed in the 1990s, allows international investors in energy projects to sue governments for profits lost as a result of policy changes. It’s now viewed as a major threat to national climate plans to shut down coal plants or limit production of oil and gas. The decision follows announcements from France, Spain, the Netherlands, Slovenia and Poland that they will withdraw from the pact. It is a major blow to the deal and also to the European Commission, which has urged countries to back reforms to the treaty. The Commission completed a negotiation with other treaty members this summer that would give the EU an exemption to phase out protections for fossil fuel projects in the EU over the next 10 years. Check out the full article and this article from The Conversation and this article about France’s withdrawal from the Treaty. 21) Where now with climate in Australia? The government is proceeding with its $20 billion “powering the nation” plan. This will strengthen the electricity grid so it can handle much larger amounts of power from renewable sources. It will open the way to more grid investment at the state level and large investment by private enterprise in wind and solar power and energy storage. As part of this, an initiative set up in principle by the Coalition but not followed through should lead to big private investment in offshore wind power. Bruce Mountain, a leading energy economist at Victoria University, says that to achieve Labor’s 43 percent emissions reduction largely through the electricity system, Australia needs to add 45 gigawatts of wind and solar generation and 15 GW of storage by the end of this decade. These are serious numbers with a serious cost: around $115 billion. For perspective, since 2010 we have installed 32 GW of renewable generators and just one GW of storage. Check out the full article. 22) Twelve angry children: young jurors call adults to account for climate crisis in The Trials. I thought this play called “The Trials” that was staged in London in August was a great way to highlight the issues facing young people in our dysfunctional world. Dawn King’s new play at the Donmar imagines a reckoning for environmental chaos, presided over by the kids who inherit the mess. We join the writer and cast, including stars of Heartstopper, in rehearsal. The play imagines a world a few decades into the future where a group of people are on trial, Nuremberg-style, for their culpability in the climate crisis. How many flights did they take? Did they eat meat? Sure, they recycled, but so what? The penalties for exceeding personal carbon allowances are severe; the jurors are played by teenagers who have inherited the mess. The defendants are clearly stand-ins for the rest of us, who have fiddled while Rome (and many other places) burned. Check out the full article. 23) Give legal rights to animals, trees and rivers, say experts. We must make major and essential changes if we are to return the Earth and all its amazing ecosystems to a healthy state. To do this we have to find new ways of living on our planet that prioritise the needs of nature. This will not only benefit us and our descendants but all other life forms, the life giving air we breathe and water, the elixir of life. The next four items look at different ways of running our economy and interacting with Nature. A report released in October and titled “Law in the Emerging Bio Age” looks at how we can use the legal framework to help achieve this aim. Granting legal rights and protections to non-human entities such as animals, trees and rivers is essential if countries are to tackle climate breakdown and biodiversity loss, experts have said. The authors of a report titled Law in the Emerging Bio Age say legal frameworks have a key part to play in governing human interactions with the environment and biotechnology. Ecuador and Bolivia have already enshrined rights for the natural world, while there is a campaign to make ecocide a prosecutable offence at the international criminal court. The report for the Law Society, the professional body for solicitors in England and Wales, explores how the relationship between humans and mother earth might be recalibrated in the future. Dr Wendy Schultz, a futurist and report co-author, said: “There is a growing understanding that something very different has to be done if our children are going to have a planet to live on that is in any way pleasant, much less survivable, so this is an expanding trend. Is it happening as fast as any of us would want? Possibly not, which is why it’s important to get the word out.” Check out the full article. If you’re interested you can download the full report and a three page summary. 24) It's time to give up on growth - why degrowth is the key to our future. An Opinion piece published on the Stuff website recently was written by Deidre Kent who is a lifelong NZ environmental activist. Deidre gives a very clear explanation of why we need to change our planetary operating system. Degrowth is a planned and democratic reduction of unnecessary production in rich countries designed to bring the economy back into balance with the living world in a safe and equitable way. Check out the full article. 25) ‘A new way of life’: the Marxist, post-capitalist, green manifesto captivating Japan. I found this article well worth a read. It addresses the growing belief that our whole economic system requires a major overhaul if we seriously want to halt the Climate and Biodiversity Crisis. Here is an extract. The climate crisis will spiral out of control unless the world applies “emergency brakes” to capitalism and devises a “new way of living”, according to a Japanese academic whose book on Marxism and the environment has become a surprise bestseller. The message from Kohei Saito, an associate professor at Tokyo University, is simple: capitalism’s demand for unlimited profits is destroying the planet and only “degrowth” can repair the damage by slowing down social production and sharing wealth. In practical terms, that means an end to mass production and the mass consumption of wasteful goods such as fast fashion. In Capital in the Anthropocene, Saito also advocates decarbonisation through shorter working hours and prioritising essential “labour-intensive” work such as caregiving. “We face a very difficult situation: the pandemic, poverty, climate change, the war in Ukraine, inflation … it is impossible to imagine a future in which we can grow the economy and at the same time live in a sustainable manner without fundamentally changing anything about our way of life. “If economic policies have been failing for 30 years, then why don’t we invent a new way of life? The desire for that is suddenly there.” Check out the full article. 26) The Global Carbon Reward policy. Here is another policy that is being promoted as an effective way of rewarding those who reduce carbon emissions. The important aspect of this policy in my opinion is that the carbon currency cannot function as a carbon offset credit. Emitters must reduce actual emissions to receive the reward rather than offsetting their emissions by paying someone else to sequester carbon. Offsetting, especially on the international market, is too difficult to monitor to ensure there is no corruption and double dipping. In the Wikipedia entry about this policy they state - “The global carbon reward is not a carbon offset credit. A carbon offset is a recorded reduction in CO2 or other greenhouse gas emissions that is used to compensate for emissions made elsewhere. The reward is issued as a currency that does not convey ownership of the mitigated carbon. All of the mitigated carbon that is awarded will be immediately retired from carbon markets and will be held by the authority for the policy, called the carbon exchange authority. They go on to say - “The global carbon reward is a proposed international policy for establishing and funding a new global carbon market for decarbonising all sectors of the world economy, and for establishing and funding a new economic sector dedicated to carbon dioxide removal (CDR). The policy is market-based, and it will offer proportional financial rewards in exchange for verifiable climate mitigation services and co-benefits. The policy approach was first presented in 2017 by Delton Chen, Joël van der Beek, and Jonathan Cloud to address the 2015 Paris Agreement, and it has since been refined. The policy employs a carbon currency to establish a global reward price for mitigated carbon. The carbon currency will not convey ownership of mitigated carbon, and consequently the carbon currency cannot function as a carbon offset credit. The carbon currency will function as a financial asset and incentive. A supranational authority is needed to implement the policy and to manage the supply and demand of the carbon currency. This authority is referred to as the carbon exchange authority. One of the authority's key functions is to coordinate the operations of major central banks in order to give the carbon currency a guaranteed floor price. A predictable rising floor price will attract private investment demand for the currency, and it will transfer a significant portion of the mitigation cost into currency markets. The policy will not result in any direct costs for governments, businesses or citizens. Consequently, the policy has scope to create a new socioeconomic pathway to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.” Check out the full Wikipedia entry. 27) An African initiative to reduce transport emissions. BasiGo is an e-mobility start-up looking to revolutionize the transportation sector by providing public transport to bus owners with a cost-effective, electric alternative to diesel. BasiGo’s K6 electric bus is the first of its kind in Kenya. The 25-seat K6 electric bus allows operators in Kenya the freedom from diesel, improved reliability, comprehensive monitoring, and an improved experience for passengers. The company has been piloting the K6 electric bus with a few partners and more recently, has collaborated with Kenya's largest commercial bank to finance buses for public transport operators. In just a few months, BasiGo’s K6 bus has driven over 100,000 km and transported more than 130,000 passengers, all with less than one day of downtime. And the company has already received over 100 reservations for electric buses from owners. Through their pay-as-you-drive program, BasiGo is making EVs as accessible and affordable as traditional diesel buses by financing the value of the battery separate from the value of the bus. Owners purchase the electric bus and then lease the battery from BasiGo through a subscription fee based on kilometers driven. The subscription service also includes nightly charging of the battery, all service and maintenance expenses for the bus, customer care, and roadside assistance, as well as free battery replacements in the event of an issue. BasiGo’s simplified business model gives owners peace of mind and accelerates the transition for Kenya’s transportation system by making the upfront price of the electric bus equal to a diesel bus. Check out their website for more information. 28) James Hansen's August Temperature update. Here is the sobering prediction for global temperatures over the next couple of years, from James Hansen and his team published in September this year. The past three months were remarkably warm on global average – remarkable because this is a La Nina year, when the cool phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation keeps the low latitude Pacific Ocean relatively cool. These three months – Northern Hemisphere summer – were each at or near records for the month, despite the La Nina. Every month this year has been warmer than the same month last year, even though the present La Nina is as deep as last year. Our interpretation is that the current warmth is spurred by the record Earth energy imbalance, which in turn is spurred by rapid growth of greenhouse gases, reduction of human-caused aerosols, and the rising phase of the solar irradiance cycle. NOAA and the relevant scientific community predict that the La Nina will continue at least through this coming winter, for a third consecutive year. El Nino/La Nina are the largest cause of global temperature variability on the time scale of a few years and they are notoriously difficult to predict more than a few months ahead. Nevertheless, we have some inside information, which encourages us to hazard a prediction for the next three annual mean global temperatures – we might then learn something from comparison with future reality. Prediction of the annual 2022 global temperature is child’s play at this point: the final four months this year should average higher than the same months last year, so the 12-month running mean at the end of this year will have ticked up to about the level in 2017. That will put 2022 in approximately a dead heat with 2017 for 4th warmest year in the record. The next year, 2023, will be warmer because of the present strong planetary energy imbalance, which is driven by the factors noted above – mainly increasing greenhouse gases. Perhaps an El Nino will begin in the second half of the year, but the El Nino effect on global temperature lags by 3-4 months. So, the 2023 temperature should be higher than in 2022, rivalling the warmest years. Finally, we suggest that 2024 is likely to be off the chart as the warmest year on record. Without inside information, that would be a dangerous prediction, but we proffer it because it is unlikely that the current La Nina will continue a fourth year. Even a little futz of an El Nino – like the tropical warming in 2018-19, which barely qualified as an El Nino – should be sufficient for record global temperature. A classical, strong El Nino in 2023-24 could push global temperature to about +1.5°C relative to the 1880-1920 mean, which is our estimate of preindustrial temperature. 29) Countries’ climate pledges built on flawed data, Washington Post investigation finds. I’ve included this article as it underlines one of the big issues I believe we all face with dealing with the Climate Crisis. It is an example of something becoming well known now – GREENWASHING. It is very understandable that countries and businesses easily succumb to the temptation to use creative accounting and selective data selection to paint a rosy picture but unfortunately unless GHG emissions stop rising and start falling very soon we will all have to face the consequences. Malaysia’s latest catalogue of its greenhouse gas emissions to the United Nations reads like a report from a parallel universe. The 285-page document suggests that Malaysia’s trees are absorbing carbon four times faster than similar forests in neighbouring Indonesia. The surprising claim has allowed the country to subtract over 243 million tons of carbon dioxide from its 2016 inventory — slashing 73 percent of emissions from its bottom line. The plan to save the world from the worst of climate change is built on data. But the data the world is relying on is inaccurate. “If we don’t know the state of emissions today, we don’t know whether we’re cutting emissions meaningfully and substantially,” said Rob Jackson, a professor at Stanford University and chair of the Global Carbon Project, a collaboration of hundreds of researchers. “The atmosphere ultimately is the truth. The atmosphere is what we care about. The concentration of methane and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is what’s affecting climate.” “In the end, everything becomes a bit of a fantasy,” said Philippe Ciais, a scientist with France’s Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Sciences who tracks emissions based on satellite data. “Because between the world of reporting and the real world of emissions, you start to have large discrepancies.” The emissions reports are so unwieldy that the United Nations does not have a complete database to track country emissions. Some 45 countries have not reported any new greenhouse gas numbers since 2009. Ultimately, it’s not the politics, the accounting or the pledges that will determine how much the planet warms but the hard numbers of atmospheric science: the parts per million of greenhouse gases in the air. Check out the full article 30) Global carbon inequality over 1990–2019 This research paper takes a close look at the different contributions that individuals make towards global carbon emissions and proposes some progressive ways of making high emitters pay their fair share. In the paper the author Lucas Chance says - All humans contribute to climate change but not equally. Here I estimate the global inequality of individual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between 1990 and 2019 using a newly assembled dataset of income and wealth inequality, environmental input-output tables and a framework differentiating emissions from consumption and investments. In my benchmark estimates, I find that the bottom 50% of the world population emitted 12% of global emissions in 2019, whereas the top 10% emitted 48% of the total. Since 1990, the bottom 50% of the world population has been responsible for only 16% of all emissions, whereas the top 1% has been responsible for 23% of the total. While per-capita emissions of the global top 1% increased since 1990, emissions from low- and middle-income groups within rich countries declined. Contrary to the situation in 1990, 63% of the global inequality in individual emissions is now due to a gap between low and high emitters within countries rather than between countries. Finally, the bulk of total emissions from the global top 1% of the world population comes from their investments rather than from their consumption. These findings have implications for contemporary debates on fair climate policies and stress the need for governments to develop better data on individual emissions to monitor progress towards sustainable lifestyles. If you’re interested you can check out and download the full research paper. 31) Australia climate inaction violated Torres Strait Islanders' rights, U.N. says. A United Nations committee found on Friday that Australia had violated the human rights of a group of islanders off its north coast by failing to adequately protect them from the impacts of climate change, such as by cutting greenhouse gas emissions. The complaint, filed over three years ago by eight Torres Strait Islanders and their children, is one of a growing body of climate cases being brought around the world on human rights grounds, and the ruling is expected to embolden others. Rising sea levels have already damaged food sources and ancestral burial sites, scattering human remains, the islanders argued, saying their homes are at risk of being submerged. Check out the full article. 32) Seawater-splitting system could scale-up renewable hydrogen production. Here is an extract from an article with encouraging information about a new technology for producing hydrogen gas from sea water rather than relying on fresh water resources. Saltwater could be used to produce green hydrogen using a system that combines electrochemical water splitting with forward osmosis. The approach could allow up-scaling of hydrogen fuel production using the planet’s predominantly salty natural water sources without pre-treatment or purification. Using solar energy to electrochemically split water into oxygen and hydrogen, akin to how plants photosynthesise, shows much promise for renewable energy. The hydrogen that’s liberated can then be mixed with carbon dioxide to make hydrogen fuels. ‘The beauty of the work is that there are no moving parts or extra energy inputs required here, just an inexpensive semipermeable membrane,’ comments Mark Symes, who investigates electrocatalysis at the University of Glasgow. ‘It’s definitely one of those papers that makes you wonder, “How come no one thought of that before?” I would not be surprised to see rapid development of this idea into a large-scale system for electrolysis in untreated water.’ Check out the full article. 33) First Solid Form Hydrogen Propulsion Vessel Ordered for Amsterdam. The construction contract has been awarded for a hydrogen demonstration vessel that will use a new solid form hydrogen for propulsion that researchers believe will pave the way for a safer and broader application of hydrogen to fuel vessels. Known as Neo Orbis, the demonstration vessel is expected to start trials in June 2023 as the next phase in the multi-year European H2Ships program. The construction contract for the Neo Orbis was awarded to Next Generation Shipyards in the Netherlands. The tender process for the vessel’s construction began in March 2022. The vessel will be approximately 65 feet long similar to the tour boats that have operated in Amsterdam for years transporting passengers and offering sightseeing excursions. It is designed to operate both in Amsterdam’s canals as well as the seaport area between Amsterdam and Ijmuiden. According to the project organizers, it will become the first ship in the world sailing on electricity, propelled with hydrogen in a solid form as the energy carrier. The fuel is made by mixing sodium borohydride powder with a stabilizer and ultrapure water into an aqueous non-combustible liquid fuel. The dissolved sodium borohydride reacts with a catalyst, producing hydrogen while the spent fuel is converted back to sodium borohydride. In the long term, the project envisions creating a closed system, by turning the residual materials into new sodium borohydride fuel. Check out the full article. 34) New System Retrofits Diesel Engines to Run on 90 Per Cent Hydrogen. A Team from UNSW Engine Research Laboratory have developed a new Hydrogen-Diesel Direct Injection Dual-Fuel System that significantly cuts carbon emissions. They have successfully converted a diesel engine to run as a hydrogen-diesel hybrid engine – reducing CO2 emissions by more than 85 per cent in the process. They say the most immediate potential use for the new technology is in industrial locations where permanent hydrogen fuel supply lines are already in place. That includes mining sites, where studies have shown that about 30 per cent of greenhouse-gas emissions are caused by the use of diesel engines, largely in mining vehicles and power generators. Check out the full article. 35) What does water want? Most humans seem to have forgotten. If you’ve got to the end of this newsletter congratulations. My eldest sister in Perth, WA recently sent me this article which I wanted to share. Here is an extract - “Most modern humans have forgotten that fresh water’s true nature is to flex with the rhythms of the earth, expanding and retreating in an eternal dance upon the land. It’s hard to feel these rhythms when rivers and streams are buried and hurried away via concrete pipes or canals. In fact, water is inclined to linger to a degree that would shock most of us because our conventional infrastructure has erased so many of its slow phases: floodplains, wetlands, mountain meadows and forests. The climate crisis can seem overwhelming, but Slow Water empowers people to make their own communities more resilient. Such projects can simultaneously buffer us from flooding and drought, slow climate change via natural carbon sinks, and support other forms of life, which in turn helps water systems maintain themselves. At the scale of home, town and watershed, we can bring back into our human habitats small, connected pieces of wildness where water can freely interact with land once again. These more natural places can also cultivate more peaceful spaces within us, and greater personal adaptability. Slowing ourselves to observe the nuances of our environment – the ebb and flow of water, the growth and decay of plants, the behaviours of other animals – is meditative and joyful. These are invitations to get curious; to ask: ‘What does water want?” Check out the full article. Cheers, Budyong.
1 Comment
Don Quick
24/11/2022 10:09:01
Good move, Budyong, to direct us to the website for the Newsletter. Makes us go there! Your comment will be posted after it is approved.
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AuthorThese newsletters are put together by Budyong Hill in an attempt to help keep Marlborough people informed of issues both global and local. The aim is help raise awareness of the myriad challenges facing the essential life support systems that our amazing planet provides for us every day. Archives
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